Understanding your predictions

How to interpret lead prediction probabilities for service lines, differentiate between utility and customer side materials, and understand the implications of various probability values for non-lead, lead or galvanized service lines.

• The lead predictions indicate the probability that a service line is lead and/or galvanized
• Since a single service line can have different materials on the utility and customer side, BlueConduit develops two material predictions for each service line: utility side material and  customer side material
• A probability of 0 means that a field inspection has occurred and verified that a service line is not lead or galvanized
• A probability of 1 means that a field inspection has occurred and verified that a service line is lead or galvanized
• Probabilities between 0 and 1 are the result of BlueConduit’s predictive modeling, and indicate the probability that a service line is either lead and/or galvanized. Probabilities closer to 1 indicate that a service line is more likely to be lead, while probabilities closer 0 indicate that a service line is more likely to be not lead.
• A probability of 0.7 can be interpreted as:  If there were 10 service lines each with a probability of 0.7, we would expect that 7 of the service lines would be lead, and 3 would not be lead.